Last night, I was watching ESPN's SEC preview with Brent Musburger and Kirk Herbstreit. To tell you the truth, I was surprised by some of the stuff I heard. We all know Alabama is ranked #1 in every poll and Florida is pretty much a consensus to win the East. However, Herbstreit picked Auburn, not Alabama, to face Florida in the championship game in Atlanta. I thought that was a very interesting pick. So, it got me thinking. It makes me feel good that there is someone other than me out there who DOES NOT think Alabama will win the SEC West. Well, let me rephrase, they will not go undefeated. However, there is a larger question to answered. Which team, Alabama or Florida, is LEAST LIKELY to make it back to Atlanta for the third straight year?
Let's examine both teams and determine an answer:
ALABAMA:
There is no question that Alabama has one of the top five coaches in college football. Nick Saban has won two national championships at two schools and is without a doubt the best defensive mind in college football. He has not lost a regular season game dating back to the Iron Bowl loss of 2007. Alabama is absolutely loaded on offense right now with 10 of 11 starters returning, including QB Greg McElroy, WR Julio Jones, and RB Mark Ingram.
However, there are three major factors standing in the way of the Crimson Tide, both in terms of winning the SEC and the BCS Championships. First, they have to replace nine starters on defense. Yes, I know Nick Saban is a defensive guru and they do have a lot of talent. I also believe the emphasis put on returning starters is overrated. Yet, I don't care who you are, when you lose that much experience in that complicated of a system, you are bound to have growing pains. That secondary will certainly get tested in week 4 as the Tide travel to face Ryan Mallett and Arkansas. Second, Alabama faces Ole Miss, South Carolina, LSU, Miss. State, Tennessee, and Auburn as those teams come off bye weeks. Alabama also has its bye week prior to the showdown in Baton Rouge. Now, that would not concern me if those were more toward the beginning of the season when teams still do not what's going on around them or torward the end when the injuries sustained by that point are pretty much season-ending. My point is that bye weeks at the extreme ends of the season are not as vital as those in the middle (see 2009 UGA v Ark, ALA v AUB, UGA v GA Tech). Unfortunately for Bama, the majority of the teams they face coming off bye weeks is in the meat of their schedule (Auburn being the exception). Finally, repeating is very difficult to do. All the pressure in the world is on you. The last team to repeat as SEC Champions was Tennessee back in 1997-1998. The last team to win back-to-back national titles was Nebraska back in 1994-1995 (I know, USC won the AP in 2003 and the BCS in 2004..whatever. We now know Reggie was given a boost there). The point here is that you have a target on your back. You are going to be taking everyone's best shots week-in and week-out. That fact is compounded when those teams have that extra week of rest.
When I look at Alabama's schedule, I see at least two losses. I really think they will lose in Baton Rouge on November 6. This is a game Les Miles and the Tigers really need to win if they are to regain control of the West. I believe they get it done. The game I would fear most though as an Alabama fan is that game in Columbia on October 9. Before you laugh and wet yourself, South Carolina under Spurrier has upset some teams, including knocking off #4 Ole Miss last year and Kentucky every time (Spurrier's comments to Erin Andrews). This is definately a trap game and one that I know for a fact Alabama fans fear. Again, these are AT LEAST 2 losses. They could lose a couple more, depending on that defense. Miss. State could very well win that game as they are expected to make huge strides in year two of Dan Mullen. Also, watch out for the Florida game.
Now, I am sure you are wondering why I do not have them losing to Arkansas this year. To tell you the truth, playing an offense like Arkansas' is something Nick Saban enjoys. Plus, we have no clue if Arkansas can live up to the hype. They are "that team" this year I think. Fortunately for them, Alabama does not play any real tough games before them. Nick Saban will not have time to discover real weaknesses in his secondary. That game should be interesting, but right now I give the slight, AND I MEAN SLIGHT, edge to Bama for the showdown.
My prediction: LSU wins the West.
FLORIDA:
The SEC East seems a lot easier for "experts" to pick. I guess they don't want Urban Meyer banning them from campus, threatening to beat them up, or calling time-outs during media sessions if they don't pick the Gators. It's not that Florida will be better than Alabama or others so much that they only have one real test in the East this year and that's Georgia. To make things better, Florida has a bye week before the Cocktail Showdown in Jacksonville on October 30. Besides Georgia, Florida has really only two other games that they have a serious chance to lose. First is the game at Alabama on October 2. The other game is at home against LSU on October 9. Just for the hell of it, Florida should probably watch out for October 16 as well. That's when Dan Mullen and MSU come to the Swamp and Florida could get caught looing ahead to UGA. Maybe a personal foul call will save them there.
In all seriousness though, Florida does have some major concerns. First, the quarterback play combined with a high ranking is an issue. In 2007, Florida came in ranked #3 with Tebow in his first year and they went 9-4. Second, Florida has a new defensive coordinator. How will Teryl Austin do? What will be the impact of losing LB Brandon "the eye-gouging" Spikes and CB Joe Haden? In a sense, Florida has the same problem Alabama does: A talented, but young defense. How do they respond? Third, and I think the biggest, is one that no one seems to be talking about. John Chavis, while he was Tennessee's DC used to comment on Tebow, saying third and short was an automatic first down since he was so big and could run downhill. My question is: who is that person now? What is Florida going to do on third downs? Demps and Rainey will be smashed trying to play powerball and Brantley cannot always throw. So, Florida has to figure that out. They do have a solid offensive line, but they still need that RB or FB who can smash through a defense like Tebow and get those extra yards. Watch and see, this could be a huge deal for them this season and could be the difference in wins and losses.
Urban Meyer is also a crucial x-factor this year. What is he going to do differently? He has said that he is not going to be as "hands-on" as he has been the previous years. Personally, I do not believe that. You can't change a man from who he is. Meyer is too fired up and too much a competitor to sit back.
I think Florida, like Alabama, loses at least two games this year. They too have so many unknowns that "experts" are trying to shrug off. I think they lose to Alabama and Florida State (not that the FSU game has bearing on the SEC East). The bye week before Georgia should help them as it comes in the middle of the season. Of course, UGA should be able to look at the Bama game and see how to defend John Brantley. Still, I see the Gators pulling that game out. The LSU game is the one I feel to be the real toss-up. I really have no idea on that one.
Even if Florida does lose to LSU and Bama, I still have them winning the East. It would be too hard for UGA or South Carolina to lose to Florida and still win the East. It can be done, but I do not see it happening for either team. South Carolina plays Florida too late in the year so their lack of depth is worn exposed. Georgia is the mystery team here. Kirk Herbstreit and many other 'experts" feel they are the sleeper team. It will all hinge on the 3-4 scheme of Todd Grantham. I just think it will take a year for the defense and Aaron Murray to settle in for a national championship run in 2011.
My prediction: Florida wins the East.
So, in conclusion, I say Alabama is LEAST LIKELY to make it back. Your opinions?
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